# Introduction to modeling infectious diseases

John M. Drake

### Goals

1. To introduce participants to several models that express the core theory for the propagation of epidemics
2. To teach the numerical methods needed to study these models
3. To teach the statistical methods needed to parameterize these models for specific applications, (e.g. model fitting, sensitivity analysis)

### Topics

1. Introduction to R programming
2. Philosophical discussion of the science and art of modeling
3. Deterministic models
4. Stochastic models
5. The basic reproduction number $$R_0$$
6. Estimating $$R_0$$
7. Infectious disease management (vaccination and social distancing)
8. Coping with uncertainty
9. Maximum likelihood estimation

### Specific learning objectives

1. Participant will be able to formulate basic models from an understanding of the epidemiology of a pathogen
2. Participant will be able to discern what kind of modeling approach is relevant to a given situation
3. Participant will be able to solve deterministic and stochastic compartmental models
4. Participant will be able to fit deterministic and stochastic compartmental models
5. Participant will be able to understand and critique models created by others

### Instructor

John M. Drake

Professor, University of Georgia

Director, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases

### Participants

1. Name
2. Area of expertise
3. Interest in the workshop
4. Any prior modeling experience