{"id":1057,"date":"2014-07-04T22:14:39","date_gmt":"2014-07-04T22:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?page_id=1057"},"modified":"2014-07-09T18:48:32","modified_gmt":"2014-07-09T18:48:32","slug":"sismid-2014-mathematical-modeling-of-infectious-diseases","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?page_id=1057","title":{"rendered":"SISMID 2014: Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Overview<\/h2>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>Program:<\/strong> 6th Annual Summer Institute in Statistical Modeling of Infectious Diseases<br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> University of Washington<br \/>\n<strong>Date:<\/strong> July 7-9, 2014<br \/>\n<strong>Instructors:<\/strong> Pejman Rohani (rohani@umich.edu) &amp; John M. Drake (jdrake@uga.edu)<br \/>\n<strong>Class objectives:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/objectives.pdf\">Outline<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Data for exercises:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/data.zip\">data.zip<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Class topics<\/h2>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>Lecture:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_1.pdf\">Mathematical models of infectious diseases<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/introduction.pdf\">Introduction to scientific programming in R<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/introduction.zip\">Code<\/a>) (<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/introdution-solutions1.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_2.pdf\">Equilibrium stability analysis and next generation method<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/deterministic-models.pdf\">Deterministic models<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/deterministic-models.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/deterministic-models-solutions1.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_3.pdf\">Infectious disease management<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/pulsed-vaccination.pdf\">Pulsed vaccination<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/pulsed-vaccination.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(Solutions),\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/social-distancing.pdf\">Social distancing<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/social-distancing.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/social-distancing-solutions.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_4.pdf\">Parameter estimation<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/estimation.pdf\">Estimation<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/estimation.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/estimation-solutions.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_5.pdf\">Stochastic models<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/stochastic-simulation.pdf\">Stochastic simulation<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/stochastic-simulation.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/stochastic-models-solutions1.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_7.pdf\">Parameter uncertainty<\/a><br \/>\n<strong> Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/sensitivity.pdf\">Sensitivity analysis of deterministic models through latin hypercube sampling<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/sensitivity.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/lhs-solutions1.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong>Lecture:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/2014_SISMID_02_6.pdf\">Heterogeneities in contact<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/structured-models.pdf\">Structured models for host heterogeneities<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/structured-models.zip\">Code<\/a>)\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/structured-models-solutions.pdf\">Solutions<\/a>)<\/p>\n<h2>Further exercises<\/h2>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong><strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/likelihood.pdf\">Estimating model parameters through maximum likelihood<\/a>\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/likelihood.zip\">Code<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong><strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/immune-escape.pdf\">The distribution of outbreak sizes: Immune escape and transmission of equine influenza<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/immune-escape.zip\">Code<\/a>)<br \/>\n<strong><strong>Exercise:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/seasonality.pdf\">Seasonally forced epidemics<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/seasonality.zip\">Code<\/a>)<\/p>\n<h2>Suggested reading (case studies)<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Anonymous. 1978. Influenza in a boarding school. <em>British Medical Journal<\/em> 1:587.<\/li>\n<li>Blower, S.M., H. B. Gershengorn, R.M.. 2000. A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. <em>Science<\/em> 287:650-654.<\/li>\n<li>Grais, R.F., M.J. Ferrari, C. Dubray, O.N. Bjornstad, B.T. Grenfell, A. Djibo, F. Fermon, P.J. Guerin. 2006. Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: Lessons for intervention. <em>Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene<\/em> 100:867-873.<\/li>\n<li>Park, A.W., J.M. Daly, N.S. Lewis, D.J. Smith, J.L.N. Wood, B.T. Grenfell. 2009. Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza. <em>Science<\/em> 326:726-728.<\/li>\n<li>Read, J. M., Lessler, J., Riley, S., Wang, S., Tan, L. J., Kwok, K. O.,\u00a0et al. 2014. Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of\u00a0southern China. <em>Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences<\/em> 281:20140268.<\/li>\n<li>Rohani, P., Zhong, X., &amp; King, A. A. 2010. Contact network structure\u00a0explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis. <em>Science\u00a0<\/em>330: 982\u2013985.<\/li>\n<li>Schenzle, D. 1984. An age-structured model of pre- and\u00a0post-vaccination measles transmission. <em>IMA Journal of Mathematics\u00a0Applied in Medicine and Biology<\/em> 1:169\u2013191.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Suggested reading (modeling infectious diseases)<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Keeling, M.J. &amp; P. Rohani. 2007. <em>Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals<\/em>. Princeton University Press.<\/li>\n<li>Vynnyky, E., &amp; R. White. 2010. <em>An introduction to infectious disease modelling<\/em>. Oxford University Press.<\/li>\n<li>Heesterbeek, J. A. P., &amp; Roberts, M. G. 2007. The type-reproduction\u00a0number T in models for infectious disease control.\u00a0<em>Mathematical\u00a0Biosciences<\/em>\u00a0206(1):3\u201310.<\/li>\n<li>Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., &amp; Roberts, M. G. 2009. The\u00a0construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic\u00a0models. <em>Journal of the Royal Society Interface\u00a0<\/em>7:873\u2013885.<\/li>\n<li>Mossong, J. E. L., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K.,\u00a0Mikolajczyk, R., et al. 2008. Social contacts and mixing patterns\u00a0relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. <em>PLoS Medicine<\/em> 5:e74.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Suggested reading (programming in R)<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Crawley, M.J. 2007. <em>The R book<\/em>. Wiley.<\/li>\n<li>Matloff, N. 2011. <a href=\"http:\/\/heather.cs.ucdavis.edu\/~matloff\/132\/NSPpart.pdf\"><em>The Art of R Programming<\/em><\/a>. No Starch Press.<\/li>\n<li>Venables, W.N., &amp; B.D Ripley. 2002. <em>Modern Applied Statistics with S<\/em>. 4th edition. Springer.<\/li>\n<li>Jones, O., R. Maillardet, &amp; A. Robinson. 2009. <em>Introduction to scientific programming and simulation with R<\/em>. Chapman &amp; Hall.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overview Program: 6th Annual Summer Institute in Statistical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Location: University of Washington Date: July 7-9, 2014 Instructors: Pejman Rohani (rohani@umich.edu) &amp;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":941,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-template-fullwidth.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1057","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1057"}],"version-history":[{"count":70,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1199,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1057\/revisions\/1199"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}