{"id":1316,"date":"2014-10-08T13:54:14","date_gmt":"2014-10-08T13:54:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?p=1316"},"modified":"2019-03-26T16:23:23","modified_gmt":"2019-03-26T16:23:23","slug":"multi-scale-model-of-white-nose-syndrome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?p=1316","title":{"rendered":"Multi-scale model of White-nose syndrome"},"content":{"rendered":"

White-nose syndrome is an emerging fungal pathogen currently devastating bat populations in the Eastern U.S. We showed previously that the spread of White-nose syndrome is strongly determined by large-scale geographic features so that spatial spread occurs along corridors and through interconnected networks of habitat patches, rather than by simple diffusion. We wondered if this meant that White-nose syndrome might burn itself out in regions\u00a0where \u00a0connections among habitat are sparse, for instance in the bridge that connects the Appalachian Mountains with the Interior Highlands.<\/p>\n

\"wns-forecasts\"<\/a><\/p>\n

To investigate this question, we developed a multi-scale model<\/a> in which local habitats are\u00a0removed through disease induced mortality, modifying the contact network as the simulated epizootic evolves. This model provides a lower bound on the rate of spread of White-nose syndrome and complements the model of Maher et al<\/a>, which has no such removal, and therefore represents an upper bound. Our results indicate\u00a0that disease induced fragmentation of\u00a0bat habitat in North America will not be sufficient to half the White-nose syndrome epizootic and will only slow its spread a small amount. This is because the connections among habitats are too many and the spread of the fungus too fast for natural fragmentation to occur.<\/p>\n

Details of the study\u00a0are available\u00a0online at Ecological Applications<\/i><\/a>.<\/p>\n