{"id":2584,"date":"2020-09-22T17:17:20","date_gmt":"2020-09-22T17:17:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?p=2584"},"modified":"2020-09-22T17:17:21","modified_gmt":"2020-09-22T17:17:21","slug":"transient-indicators-of-tipping-points-in-infectious-diseases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/?p=2584","title":{"rendered":"Transient indicators of tipping points in infectious diseases"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A\n variety of generic indicators have been proposed to identify gradual \nchanges in a population that can be used to anticipate the onset or \nconclusion of an epidemic.&nbsp; Many of these indicators rely on <strong>critical slowing down<\/strong>,\n a phenomenon where a system takes a longer time to return to a stable \nstate following a perturbation as the system approaches a tipping point.\n Such indicators characterize the long-term resilience of the system in \nthe absence of any disturbances.&nbsp; However, in infectious diseases \nsystems, disturbances are frequent and direct observation of long-term \nresilience is rare. Thus, this work characterizes the tendency of \ninfectious disease systems to amplify perturbations in the short term. \nThe implication is that more frequently observed short-term behavior can\n provide indicators of the reducing efficacy of disease control measures\n prior to an epidemic or the success of control measures instituted for a\n widespread disease.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In more detail, the researchers show that two measures of transient dynamics, <strong>reactivity<\/strong> (a measure of the potential for instantaneous growth of perturbations) and the <strong>maximum amplification <\/strong>(a\n measure of the magnitude a perturbation can attain) may be useful \nindicators for infectious disease systems. Using SIR models \nparameterized for measles and pertussis as case studies, researchers \nshow that perturbations \u2014&nbsp; which may occur as a consequence of the \nroll-out of a new vaccine, for example \u2014 typically have greater growth \nrates and maximum size as a tipping point is approached.&nbsp; This result \nsuggests that indicators based on short-term observations of \ndisturbances may be a useful component of forecasting systems. Such \nsystems have important implications for health policy and may improve \ninfectious disease preparedness efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Corresponding Author: Suzanne O\u2019Regan, <a href=\"mailto:smoregan@uga.edu\">smoregan@uga.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0094\">O\u2019Regan SM, O\u2019Dea \nEB, Rohani P, Drake JM. 2020 Transient indicators of tipping points in \ninfectious diseases. J. R. Soc. Interface 17: 20200094. \nhttp:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2020.0094<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vaccine illustration by Chloe Parker<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A variety of generic indicators have been proposed to identify gradual changes in a population that can be used to anticipate the onset or conclusion&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,53,57,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-critical-transitions","category-infectious-diseases","category-modeling","category-new-paper"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2584"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2585,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2584\/revisions\/2585"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daphnia.ecology.uga.edu\/drakelab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}