R package: spaero v. 0.3.0

One of the key research products of Project AERO is the R package spaero (pronounced “sparrow”) for estimating distributional properties along rolling windows of time series. Such estimates may in some cases provide signals that the system generating the data is approaching a regime shift. Regime shifts are marked changes in the dynamics of a system that may sometimes be modeled […]

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Anticipating Outbreaks with Imperfect Data

Anticipating disease emergence is a challenge with clear public health ramifications. Theoretical studies have already demonstrated that epidemic transitions are in principle preceded by detectable temporal trends in statistics (early-warning signals). We investigated the robustness of these early-warning signals under simulated realistic disease reporting scenarios, testing the effects of case reporting error, reporting probability, and […]

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