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Journal Articles


  • Brett, T.S., J.M. Drake, & P. Rohani. 2017. Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. (In press.)
  • Kramer, A.M., G. Annis, M.E. Wittman, W.L. Chadderton, E.S. Rutherford, D.M. Lodge, L. Mason, D. Beletsky, C. Riseng, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Suitability of Laurentian Great Lakes for invasive species based on global species distribution models and local habitat. Ecosphere. (In press.)
  • Dallas, T.A., A.W. Park, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predicting cryptic links in host-parasite networks. PLOS Computational Biology. (In press.) [online] [data & code]
  • Berec, L., A.M. Kramer, V. Bernhauerova, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Density-dependent selection on mate search and the evolution of Allee effects. Journal of Animal Ecology. (In press.) [online]
  • Schatz, A.M., A.M. Kramer, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Accuracy of climate-based forecasts of pathogen spread. Royal Society Open Science 4:160975. [online] [data & code]
  • Evans, M.V., T.A. Dallas, B.A. Han, C.C. Murdock, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Data-driven identification of potential Zika virus vectors. eLife 6:e22053. [online] [data & code]
  • Schmidt, J.P., A.W. Park, A.M. Kramer, B.A. Han, L.W. Alexander, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Spatiotemporal fluctuations and triggers of Ebolavirus spillover. Emerging Infectious Diseases 23:415-422. [online]
  • Wittmann, M.E., G. Annis, A.M. Kramer, L. Mason, C. Riseng, E.S. Rutherford, W.L. Chadderton, D. Beletsky, J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2017. Refining species distribution model outputs using landscape-scale habitat data: Forecasting Grass Carp and Hydrilla verticillata establishment in the Great Lakes Region. Journal of Great Lakes Research 43:298-307. [online]
  • Dallas, T., A.W. Park, & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predictability of helminth parasite host range using information on geography, host traits and parasite community structure. Parasitology. 144:200-205. [online] [data & code]


  • Lodge, D.M., P.W. Simonin, S.W. Burgiel, R.P. Keller, J.M. Bossenbroek, C.L. Jerde, A.M. Kramer, E.S. Rutherford, M.A. Barnes, M.E. Wittmann, W.L. Chadderton, J.L. Apriesnig, D. Beletsky, R.M. Cooke, J.M. Drake, S.P. Egan, D.C. Finnoff, C.A. Gantz, E.K. Grey, M.H. Hoff, J.G. Howeth, R.A. Jensen, E.R. Larson, N.E. Mandrak, D.M. Mason, F.A. Martinez, T.J. Newcomb, J.D. Rothlisberger, A.J. Tucker, T.W. Warziniack, & H. Zhang. 2016. Risk analysis and bioeconomics of invasive species to inform policy and management. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 41:453-488. [online]
  • Dallas, T. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Fluctuating temperatures alter environmental pathogen transmission in a Daphnia-pathogen system. Ecology & Evolution 6:7931–7938. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Dibble, C., E.A. O’Dea, A.W. Park, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Waiting time to infectious disease emergence. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13:20160540 [online] [pdf] [supplement] [data & code]
  • Kramer, A., J. Ward, F. Dobbs, M. Pierce, & J.M. Drake. 2016. The contribution of marine aggregate-associated bacteria to the accumulation of pathogenic bacteria in oysters: an agent-based model. Ecology & Evolution 6:7397-7408 [online] [data & code]
  • Zarada, K. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Time to extinction in deteriorating environments. Theoretical Ecology 10:65-71.  [online] [data & code]
  • Wittmann, M.E, G. Annis, A.M. Kramer, L. Mason, C. Riseng, E.S. Rutherford, W.L. Chadderton, D. Beletsky, J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2016. Refining species distribution model outputs using landscape-scale habitat data: Forecasting Grass Carp and Hydrilla verticillata establishment in the Great Lakes Region. Journal of Great Lakes Research 43:298-307. [online]
  • Dallas, T., A.M. Kramer, M. Zokan, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Ordination obscures the influence of environment on plankton metacommunity structure. Limnology & Oceanography Letters 1:54-61. [online] [data & code]
  • Hefley, T.J., M. Hooten, J.M. Drake, R. Russel, & D. Walsh. 2016. When can the cause of a population decline be determined? Ecology Letters 19:1353-1362. [online] [pdf] [code] [data]
  • Kramer, A.M., J.T. Pulliam, *L. Alexander, P. Rohani, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2016. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Royal Society Open Science 3:160294 [online] [data & code]
  • Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, *L. Alexander, S.E. Bowden, D.T.S. Hayman, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Undiscovered bat hosts of filoviruses. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10:e0004815. [online] [supplement & figures]
  • Stephens, P.R., S. Altizer, K.F. Smith, A.A. Aguirre, J.H. Brown, S.A. Budischak, J.E. Byers. J.T. Davies, J.M. Drake, V.O. Ezenwa, M.J. Farrell, J.L. Gittleman, B.A. Han, S. Huang, R.A. Hutchinson, P. Johnson, C.L. Nunn, D. Onstad, A. Park, G.M. Vazquez-Prokopec, J.P. Schmidt, & R. Poulin. 2016. The macroecology of infectious diseases: A new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts. Ecology Letters 19:1159-1171. [online]
  • Vinson, J.E., J.M. Drake, P. Rohani, & A.W. Park. 2016. The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology Letters 12(6):20151079. [online]
  • Han, B.A., A.M. Kramer, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Global patterns of zoonotic disease in mammals. Trends in Parasitology 32:565-577. [online]
  • Kaul, R.B., A.M. Kramer, F.C. Dobbs, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Experimental demonstration of Allee effects in microbial populations. Biology Letters 12:20160070. [online] [data & code]
  • Dallas, T. 2016. helminthR: an R interface to the London Natural History Museum’s host-parasite database. Ecography 39:391-393. [online]
  • O’Regan, S. M., J.W. Lillie, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Theoretical Ecology 9:269-286. [online]
  • Dallas, T., M. Holtackers, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Costs of resistance and infection in a Daphnia-microparasite system. Ecology & Evolution 6:1737-1744. [online]
  • Dallas, T., R.J. Hall, & J.M. Drake. 2016. Competition-mediated feedbacks in experimental multi-species epizootics. Ecology 97:661-670. [online] [data & code]


  • Dallas, T. & E. Cornelius. 2015. Co-extinction in a host-parasite network: identifying key hosts for network stability. Nature Scientific Reports 5:13185. [online]
  • Mansergh, G., Miller, P., Herbst, J. H., Mimiaga, M. J., & Holman, J. 2015. Effects of brief messaging about undiagnosed infections detected through HIV testing among Black and Latino men who have sex with men in the United States. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 42:691-693.
  • Zokan, M. & J.M. Drake. 2015. The effect of hydroperiod and predation on the diversity of temporary pond zooplankton communities. Ecology & Evolution 5:3066-3074. [online] [data]
  • Maynard, D., K. Leonard, J.M. Drake, D. Hall, T. Crowther, & M. Bradford. 2015. Modelling the multidimensional niche by linking functional traits to competitive performance. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 282:20150516. [online]
  • Drake, J.M., I. Bakach, M.R. Just, S.M. O’Regan, M. Gambhir, I. C.-H. Fung. 2015. Transmission models of historic Ebola outbreaks: a review. Emerging Infectious Diseases 21:1447-1450. [online]
  • Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, S.E. Bowden, & J.M. Drake. 2015. Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 112:7039-7044. [online] [data]
  • Zokan, M., G. Ellis, S.E. Clem, J. Lorenz, & W.F. Loftus. 2015. The ichthyofauna of Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida. Southeastern Naturalist 14:517-550. [online]
  • Drake, J.M. 2015. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modeling from presence-only data. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12:20150086. [online] [pdf]
  • Barnum, T.R., J.M. Drake, C. Colon-Gaud, A.T. Rugenski, T.C. Frauendorf, S. Connelly, S.S. Kilham, M.R. Whiles, K.R. Lips, & C.M. Pringle. 2015. Evidence for the persistence of food web structure after amphibian extirpation in a Neotropical stream. Ecology 96:2106-2116. [online] [pdf] [data]
  • Clements, C.F., J.M. Drake, J. Griffiths, & A. Ozgul. 2015. Factors affecting the detectability of early warning signals in wild populations. American Naturalist 186:50-58. [online] [pdf]
  • Huang, S., J.M. Drake, J.L. Gittleman, & S. Altizer. 2015. Parasite diversity declines with host evolutionary distinctiveness: A global analysis of carnivores. Evolution 69:621-630.
  • Drake, J.M., R.B. Kaul, L.W. Alexander, S.M. O’Regan, A.M. Kramer, J.T. Pulliam, M.J. Ferrari, & A.W. Park. 2015. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS Biology 13:e1002056. [online] [data & code]
  • Drury, K.L.S., J.D. Suter, J.B. Rendall, A.M. Kramer, & J.M. Drake. 2015. Immigration can destabilize tri-trophic interactions: Implications for conservation of top predators. Theoretical Ecology 8:285-296. [online] [pdf]
  • Alexander, K.A., C.E. Sanderson, M. Marathe, B.L. Lewis, C.M. Rivers, J. Shaman, J.M. Drake, E. Lofgren, V. Dato, M.C. Eisenberg, & S. Eubank. 2015. What factors might have led to the emergence of Ebola in West Africa? PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9:e000365. [online] [pdf]
  • O’Regan, S.M., K. Magori, J.T. Pulliam, M.A. Zokan, R.B. Kaul, H.D. Barton, & J.M. Drake. 2015. Multi-scale model of epidemic fadeout: Will local extirpation events inhibit the spread of White-nose Syndrome? Ecological Applications 25:621-633. [online] [pdf]


  • Lofgren, E., M.E. Halloran, C.M. Rivers, J.M. Drake, T.C. Porco, B. Lewis, W. Yang, A. Vespignani, J. Shaman, J.N.S. Eisenberg, M.C. Eisenberg, M. Marathe, S.V. Scarpino, K.A. Alexander, R. Meza, M.J. Ferrari, J.M. Hyman, L.A. Meyers, & S. Eubank. 2014. Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 111:18095-18096. [online]
  • Xu, J., T.L. Wickramarathne, N.V. Chawla, E.K. Grey, K. Steinhaeuser, R.P. Keller, J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2014. Improving management of aquatic invasions by integrating shipping network, ecological, and environmental data: data mining for social good. Proceedings of the 20th ACM SIGKDD International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. Pp. 1699-1708. [online]
  • Roche, B., J.M. Drake, J. Brown, D. Stallknecht, T. Bedford, & P. Rohani. 2014. Adaptive evolution and environmental durability jointly structure phylodynamic patterns in avian influenza viruses. PLOS Biology 12:e1001931. [online] [pdf] [data]
  • Maher, S.P., A. Guisan, C. Randin, & J.M. Drake. 2014. Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data. Methods in Ecology & Evolution 5:761-770. [online]
  • Drake, J.M. & J.C. Beier. 2014. Ecological niche and potential distribution of Anopheles arabiensis in Africa in 2050. Malaria Journal 13:213. [online] [pdf]
  • Dallas, T. & J.M. Drake. 2014. The relative importance of environmental, geographic, and spatial variables structuring zooplankton metacommunities. Ecosphere 5:104. [pdf] [data: Eastern Lake Survey]
  • Krkosek, M. & J.M. Drake. 2014. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 281:20133221. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Drake, J.M. 2014. Ensemble algorithms for ecological niche modeling from presence-only and presence-background data. Ecosphere 5:art76. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Kramer, A.M. & J.M. Drake. 2014. Time to competitive exclusion. Ecosphere 5(5):52. [online] [pdf] [code]
  • Drake, J.M. 2014. Tail probabilities of extinction time in a large number of experimental populations. Ecology 95:1119-1126. [online] [data & code]
  • Wittmann, M., C. Jerde, J. Howerth, S. Maher, A. Deines, G. Whitledge, S. Burbank, W. Chadderton, A. Mahon, J. Tyson, C. Gantz, R. Keller, J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2014. Re-evaluating the invasion risk of a biological control agent (grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella): Reducing ecological uncertainty with improved risk assessment in the Great Lakes basin. Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences 71:992-999. [online]
  • Brown, V.L., J.M. Drake, D.E. Stallknecht, J.D. Brown, H. Barton, K. Pedersen, & P. Rohani. 2014. Neutrality, cross-immunity and subtype dominance in avian influenza viruses. PLOS ONE 9:388817. [online] [pdf]
  • Dallas, T. 2014. metacom: an R package for the analysis of metacommunity structure. Ecography 37:402-405. [online]
  • Dallas, T. & J.M. Drake. 2014. Nitrate enrichment alters a Daphnia-microparasite interaction through multiple pathways. Ecology & Evolution 4:243-250. [online] [pdf]
  • Barton, H., P. Rohani, D. Stallknecht, J. Brown, & J.M. Drake. 2014. Subtype diversity and reassortment potential for co-circulating avian influenza viruses at a diversity hot spot. Journal of Animal Ecology 83:566-575. [pdf] [data & code]


  • Drake, J.M., A.N. Hassan, & J.C. Beier. 2013. A statistical model of Rift Valley fever activity in Egypt. Journal of Vector Ecology 38:251-259. [online]
  • Kramer, A.M., M.M. Lyons, F.C. Dobbs, & J.M. Drake. 2013. Bacterial colonization and extinction on marine aggregates: stochastic model of species presence and abundance. Ecology & Evolution 3:4300-4309. doi: 10.1002/ece3.789 [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2013. Early warning signals of stochastic switching. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 280:20130686. [online] [pdf]
  • O’Regan, S.M. & J.M. Drake. 2013. Theory of early warning signals of disease emergence and leading indicators of elimination. Theoretical Ecology 6:333-357. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & B.D. Griffen. 2013. Experimental demonstration of accelerated extinction in source-sink metapopulations. Ecology & Evolution 3:3369-3378. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Bowden, S.E. & J.M. Drake. 2013. Ecology of multi-host pathogens of animals. Nature Education Knowledge 4(8):5. [online]
  • Magori, K. & J.M. Drake. 2013. The population dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Nature Education Knowledge 4(4):14. [online]
  • Bhatt, D., P.W. Gething, O.J. Brady, J.P. Messina, A.W.Farlow, C.L. Moyes, J.M. Drake, J.S. Brownstein, A.G. Hoen, O. Sankoh, M.F. Myers, D.B. George, T. Jaenisch, G.R.W. Wint, C.P. Simmons, T.W. Scott, J.J. Farrar, & S.I. Hay. 2013. The global distribution and burden of dengue.  Nature 496:504-507. doi:10.1038/nature12060 [online]
  • Robinson, J.R., J.P. Wares, & J.M. Drake. 2013. Extinction hazard in experimental Daphnia magna populations: effects of genotype diversity and environmental variation. Ecology & Evolution 3:233-243. [online] [pdf]
  • Brown, V.L., J.M. Drake, D.E. Stallknecht, J.D. Brown, K. Pedersen, & P. Rohani. 2013. Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot: the impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality. Proceedings of the Royal Society Interface 10:2012080 [online] [pdf]


  • Maher, S.P, A.M. Kramer, J.T. Pulliam, M.A. Zokan, S.E. Bowden, H.D. Barton, K. Magori, & J.M Drake. 2012. Spread of White-nose Syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate. Nature Communications 3:art1306. [pdf] [supplement]
  • Schmidt, J.P., P. Stephens, & J.M. Drake. 2012. Two sides of the same coin? Rare and invasive plants native to North America. Ecological Applications 22:1512-1525. [pdf] [data: range size analysis [data: rarity analysis] [data & analysis for weed species] [data & analysis for noxious species]
  • Schmidt, J.P., M. Springborn, & J.M. Drake. 2012. Bioeconomic forecasting of invasive species by ecological syndrome. Ecosphere 3(5):46. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & A.M. Kramer. 2012. Mechanistic analogy: how microcosms explain nature. Theoretical Ecology 5:433-444. [online] [pdf]


  • Drake, J.M. & A. M. Kramer. 2011. Allee effects. Nature Education Knowledge 2(9):2. [online]
  • Magori, K., W.I. Bajwa, S. Bowden, & J.M. Drake. 2011. Decelerating spread of West Nile virus by percolation in a heterogeneous urban landscape. PLOS Computational Biology 7:e1002104 [online] [pdf] [supplement]
  • Rohani, P. & J.M. Drake. 2011. The decline and resurgence of pertussis in the US. Epidemics 3:183-188.
  • Roche, B., J.M. Drake, & P. Rohani. 2011. The curse of the Pharaoh revisited: evolutionary bi-stability in environmentally transmitted pathogens. Ecology Letters 14:569-575. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01619.x [online] [pdf]
  • Roche, B., J.M. Drake, & P. Rohani. 2011. An agent-based model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses. BMC Bioinformatics 12:87. [online] [pdf]
  • Schmidt, J.P. & J.M. Drake. 2011. Why are some plant genera more invasive than others? PLOS One 6:e18654. [online] [pdf]
  • Schmidt, J.P. & J. M. Drake. 2011. Time since introduction, seed mass, and genome size predict successful invaders among the cultivated vascular plants of Hawaii. PLOS One 6:e17391. [online] [pdf]
  • Keller, R.K., J.M. Drake, M. Drew, & D.M. Lodge. 2011. Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network. Diversity & Distributions 17:93-102. [online] [pdf]
  • Vercken, E., A. Kramer, P. Tobin, & J.M. Drake. 2011. Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) Ecology Letters 14:179-186. [online] [pdf]
  • Bowden, S., K. Magori, & J.M. Drake. 2011. Regional differences in the association between land cover and West Nile virus incidence in humans.  American Journal of Tropical Medicince and Hygiene 84:234-238. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M., J. Shapiro, & B.D. Griffen. 2011. Experimental demonstration of a two-phase population extinction hazard. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 8:1472-1479. doi:10.1098/rsif.2011.0024 [pdf] [data & code]


  • Kramer, A.M. & J.M. Drake. 2010. Experimental demonstration of population extinction due to a predator–driven Allee effect. Journal of Animal Ecology 79:633–639. [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & B.D. Griffen. 2010. Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments.Nature 467:456-459. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Lyons, M., J.E. Ward, H. Gaff, R. Hicks, J.M. Drake, & F.C. Dobbs. 2010. Theory of island biogeography on a microscopic scale: are organic aggregates islands for aquatic pathogens? Aquatic Microbial Ecology 60:1-13. [online] [pdf]
  • Breban, R., J.M. Drake, & P. Rohani. 2010. A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states. Journal of Theoretical Biology 264:729-736. [pdf]


  • Drake, J.M. 2009. Evolutionary relationships among human-isolated and wildlife-isolated West Nile viruses. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 9:1392-1393. [online] [pdf]
  • Griffen, B.D. & J. M. Drake. 2009. Environment, but not migration rate, influences extinction risk in experimental metapopulations. Proceedings of the Royal Society Series B 276:4363-4371. [online] [pdf]
  • Kramer, A.M., B. Dennis, A.M. Liebhold, & J.M. Drake. 2009. The evidence for Allee effects. Population Ecology 51:341-354. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & B.D. Griffen. 2009. The speed of expansion and decline in experimental populations. Ecology Letters 12:772-778. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Rohani, P., R. Breban, D.E. Stallknecht, & J.M. Drake. 2009. Environmental transmission of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus and its implications for pathogen invasion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 106:10365-10369. [online] [pdf]
  • Breban, R., J.M. Drake, D.E. Stallknecht, & P. Rohani. 2009. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics. PLOS Computational Biology 5(4): e1000346. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000346 [online] [pdf] [supporting information]
  • Griffen, B.D. & J.M. Drake. 2009. Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B. 276(1660):1361-1367. [online] [pdf]
  • Pardini, E., J.M. Drake, J.M. Chase, & T. Knight. 2009. Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard). Ecological Applications 19:387-397. [online] [pdf] [appendix]
  • Drake, J.M. & J.M. Bossenbroek. 2009. Profiling ecosystem vulnerability to invasion by Zebra mussels with support vector machines. Theoretical Ecology 4:189-198. [online] [pdf]


  • Griffen, B. & J.M. Drake. 2008. Effects of habitat size and quality on extinction in experimental populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society 275: 2251-2256. [online] [pdf]
  • Griffen, B. & J.M. Drake. 2008. A review of extinction in experimental populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 77:1274-1287. [pdf]
  • Adler, P. & J.M. Drake. 2008. Environmental variability, stochastic extinction, and competitive coexistence. American Naturalist 172:186-195. [pdf]
  • Hendrix, P.F., M.A. Callaham, J.M. Drake, C.-Y. Huang, S.W. James, B.A. Snyder, & W. Zhang. 2008. Pandora’s box contained bait: the global problem of introduced earthworms. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 39:593-613. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M., E.E. Cleland, C. Bowles, K. Carney, M.C. Horner-Devine, S. Emery, J. Gramling, M.D. Smith, D.B. Vandermast, E. Fleishman, & J.B. Grace. 2008. Do non-native plant species affect the shape of productivity-diversity relationships? American Midland Naturalist 159:55-66. [pdf]


  • Drake, J.M., & D.M. Lodge. 2007. Hull fouling is a risk factor for intercontinental species exchange in aquatic ecosystems. Aquatic Invasions 2:121-131. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2007. Parental investment and fecundity, but not brain size, are associated with establishment success in introduced fishes. Functional Ecology 21:963-968. [online] [pdf]
  • Drury, K.L.S., J.M. Drake, D.M. Lodge, & D. Dwyer. 2007. Immigration events dispersed in space and time: factors affecting immigration success. Ecological Modelling 206:63-78. [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2007. Rate of species introductions in the Great Lakes via ships’ ballast water and sediments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 64:530-538. [online] [data: salinity] [data description]
  • Costello, C., J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2007. Evaluating an invasive species policy: ballast water exchange in the Great Lakes. Ecological Applications 17:655-662. [pdf] data: ship traffic] [data: non-indigenous animal species]
  • Keller, R.P., J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2007. Fecundity as a basis for risk assessment of non-indigenous freshwater mollusks. Conservation Biology 21:191-200. [pdf]


  • Drake, J.M., S.K. Chew, & S. Ma. 2006. Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore. PLOS ONE 1(1): e20. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000020 [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2006. Extinction times in experimental populations. Ecology 87:2215-2220. [online] [pdf] [data & code]
  • Drake, J.M. 2006. Heterosis, the catapult effect, and establishment success of a colonizing bird. Biology Letters 2:304-307. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2006.0459 [online] [pdf] [data]
  • Drake, J.M. 2006. Limits to forecasting precision for outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases. PLOS Medicine 3:57-62. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030003 [online] [pdf] [supplement & figures]
  • Drake, J.M., A. Guisan, & C. Randin. 2006. Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines. Journal of Applied Ecology 43:424-432. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01141.x [online] [pdf]
  • Vellend, M., T.M. Knight, & J.M. Drake. 2006. Antagonistic effects of seed dispersal and herbivory on plant migration. Ecology Letters 9:319-326. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00878.x [online] [pdf]
  • Boyce, M.S., C.V. Haridas, C.T. Lee, C.L. Boggs, E.M. Bruna, T. Coulson, , D. Doak, J.M. Drake, J.-M. Gaillard, C.C. Horvitz, S. Kalisz, B.E. Kendall, T. Knight, M. Mastrandrea, E.S. Menges, W.F. Morris, C.A. Pfister, & S.D. Tuljapurkar. 2006. Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 21:141-148. doi:10.1016/j/tree.2005.11.018 [online]
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2006. Forecasting potential distributions of non-indigenous species with a genetic algorithm. Fisheries 31:9-16. [online]
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2006. Allee effects, propagule pressure and the probability of establishment: Risk analysis for biological invasions. Biological Invasions 8:365-375. [online]
  • Drake, J.M., K.L.S. Drury, D.M. Lodge, A. Blukacz, N. Yan, & G. Dwyer. 2006. Demographic stochasticity, environmental variability, and windows of invasion risk for Bythotrephes longimanus in North America. Biological Invasions 8:843-861. [online]


  • Drake, J.M., P. Baggenstos, & D.M. Lodge. 2005. Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations. Biology Letters 1:480-483. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2005.0375 [pdf] [online] [data: extinction time] [data: population size] [code]
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Population effects of increased climate variation. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 272:1823-1827. [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Density dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations. PLOS Biology 3:1300-1304. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0030222 [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Risk analysis for species introductions: Forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe Gymnocephalus cernuus. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 62:1053-1059. [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M., D.M. Lodge, & M. Lewis. 2005. Theory and preliminary analysis of species invasions from ballast water: controlling discharge volume and location. American Midland Naturalist 154:459-470. [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Risk analysis for invasive species and emerging infectious diseases: concepts and applications. American Midland Naturalist 153:4-19. [pdf]


  • Drake, J.M. & J.M. Bossenbroek. 2004. The potential distribution of zebra mussels in the United States. BioScience 54:931-941. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0931:TPDOZM]2.0.CO;2 [online] [pdf]
  • Cleland, E.E., M. D. Smith, S.J. Andelman, C. Bowles, K.M. Carney, M.C. Horner-Devine, J.M. Drake, S. M. Emery, J. Gramling, & D.B. Vandermast. 2004. Invasion in space and time: non-native species richness and relative abundance respond to interannual variation in productivity and diversity. Ecology Letters 7:947-957. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00655.x [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk Analysis 24:795-802. doi:10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00479.x [online] [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M & D.M. Lodge. 2004. Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 271:575-580.[pdf] [data: matrix pairwise flows] [data: port locations] [metadata]
  • Leung, B., J.M. Drake, & D.M. Lodge. 2004. Predicting invasions: propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 85:1651-1660. [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2004. Effects of environmental variation on extinction and establishment. Ecology Letters 7:26-30. doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00546.x [online]


  • Drake, J.M. 2003. The paradox of the parasites: implications for biological invasion. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Supplement (Biology Letters) 270:S133-S135. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2003.0056 [pdf]
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Why does grassland productivity increase with species richness? Disentangling species richness and composition with tests for overyielding and superyielding in biodiversity experiments. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 270:1713-1719. doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2423 [pdf]

Book chapters, edited works, and dissertation

  • Drake, J.M. & A.W. Park. 2016. A model for coupled outbreaks contained by behavior change. In Mathematical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Springer. [online]
  • Pulliam, H.R., J.M. Drake, & J.R.C. Pulliam. 2011. On estimating demographic and dispersal parameters for niche and source-sink models. Chapter in Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability Across Landscapes. J. Liu, V. Hull, and A. Morzillo, eds. pp.183-215.
  • Keller, R.P. & J.M. Drake. 2009. Trait-based risk assessment for invasive species. In Lodge, Lewis, Shogren, and Keller (eds) Economics of Biological Invasions. pp. 44-62.
  • Herborg, M., J.M. Drake, J. Rothlisberger, & J.M. Bossenbroek. 2009. Identifying suitable habitat for invasive spceis using ecological niche models and the policy implications of range forecasts. In Lodge, Lewis, Shogren, and Keller (eds) Economics of Biological Invasions. pp. 63-82.
  • Drake, J.M. & C. Jerde. 2009. Stochastic mdoels of propagule pressure and establishment. In Lodge, Lewis, Shogren, and Keller (eds) Bioeconomics of Invasive Species. pp. 83-102.
  • Drake, J.M., editor. 2005. Proceedings of the 24th Annual Midwest Ecology and Evolution Conference. American Midland Naturalist 153:1-79. [web contents]
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Risk Analysis for Biological Invasions of the Laurentian Great Lakes and Inland Aquatic Ecosystems. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Notre Dame. [pdf]

Book reviews, letters, and opinions

  • C. Rivers, K. Alexander, S. Bellan, S. Del Valle, J. M. Drake, J. N.S. Eisenberg, S. Eubank, M. Ferrari, M. E. Halloran, A. Galvani, B. L. Lewis, J. Lewnard, E. Lofgren, C. Macal, M. Marathe, M. L. Ndeffo Mbah, L. Ancel Meyers, R. Meza, A. Park, T. Porco, S. V. Scarpino, J. Shaman, A. Vespignani, & W. Yang. 2014. Ebola: models do more than forecast (letter to the editor). Nature 515:492. [online]
  • Halloran, M.E., A. Vespignani, N. Bharti, L.R. Feldstein, K.A. Alexander, M. Ferrari, J. Shaman, J.M. Drake, T. Porco, J.N.S. Eisenberg, S.Y. Del Valle, E. Lofgren, S.V. Scarpino, M.C. Eisenberg, D. Gao, J.M. Hyman, S. Eubank, & I.M. Longini. 2014. Ebola: mobility data (letter to the editor). Science 346:433.
  • Drake, J.M. 2013. Food webs (book review). Quarterly Review of Biology 88:132-133.
  • Drake, J.M. 2013. A niche for theory and another for practice. Book review of Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions by A.T. Peterson et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 28:76-77.
  • McKaughan, D.J. & J.M. Drake. 2012. Representing vague opinion. Principia 16(2):341-344.
  • Drake, J.M. 2012. Philosophy of ecology (book review). Quarterly Review of Biology 87(2):141-142.
  • Drake, J.M. 2012. Ecology, cognition, and landscape: Linking natural and social systems (book review). Quarterly Review of Biology 87(1):55-56.
  • Springborn, M., J.P. Schmidt, & J.M. Drake. 2012. Cost-Sensitive Risk Assessment for Invasive Plants in the United States. Proceedings of the California Invasive Plant Council Symposium 15:1. Cal-IPC, Berkeley, CA, 51-53.
  • Pardini, E.A., J.M. Drake, & T. Knight. 2011. On the utility of population models for invasive plant management: response to Evans and Davis. Ecological Applications 21:614-618.
  • Drake, J.M. 2010. Allee effects in ecology and conservation by F. Couchamp, L. Berec, and J. Gascoigne (book review). Quarterly Review of Biology 85:216.
  • Drake, J.M. 2009. Should Christians be realists? Context and conversation with Bradley John Monton – a review essay. Christian Scholar’s Review XXXVIII (2):283-292.
  • Drake, J.M., D.M. Lodge, and C. Costello. 2008. Reply to Ricciardi & MacIsaac. Ecological Applications 18:1323-1324.
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2008. Reply to Reid & Hudson. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 65:554-555.
  • Drake, J.M. 2008. Niche Modeling: predictions from statistical distributions by David Stockewell (book review). Biometrics 64:311-312.
  • Drake, J.M. 2008. Population ecology: viability analysis. Pp. 2901-2907 in Encylopedia of Ecology. Elsevier, Oxford. (Peer reviewed).
  • Drake, J.M. 2007. When nature attacks. Review of Invasion Ecology (1st edition) by J.L. Lockwood, M.F. Hoopes, & M.P. Marchetti. Times Higher Education Supplement (May 2007).
  • Drake, J.M. & D.M. Lodge. 2006. On the distribution and extension of rainbow smelt – reply. Fisheries 31:304-305.
  • Drake, J.M. 2006. Caring for Creation edited by S. Tillett (book review). Science and Christian Belief 18:204-205.
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Ethical considerations. Invasive Species and the Public Good. YFF Review 8(1):19-21.
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Ecological orbits by L. Ginzburg and M. Colyvan (book review). American Midland Naturalist 153:454-455.
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. Fundamental limits to the precition of early warning systems for epidemics of infectious diseases. PLOS Medicine. 2:461-462. Published online 30 March 2005. [web version]
  • Drake, J.M., C. Costello, & D.M. Lodge. 2005. When did the discovery rate for invasive species in the North American Great Lakes accelerate? BioScience 55(1): 4.
  • Drake, J.M. 2005. When explanation? The diversity of practices in ecology: A review of Scientific method for ecological research by E. David Ford. Biology and Philosophy 19:801-807.
  • Drake, J.M. & R. Keller. 2004. Environmental justice alert: Do developing nations bear the burden of risk for invasive species? BioScience 54:718-719.
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Population viability analysis: theoretical advances and research needs. Endangered Species UPDATE 21(3):93-96.
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Population viability analysis, S.R. Beissinger and D.R. McCullough, eds. and Quantitative conservation biology by W.F. Morris and D.F. Doak (book review). Oryx 38(3):351-352.
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Complex population dynamics: A theoretical/empirical synthesis by Peter Turchin (book review). Quarterly Review of Biology 79(3):298.
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation by R. Lande, S. Engen, and B.-E. Sæther (book review). Acta Biotheoretica 53:219-220.
  • Drake, J.M. 2004. Foot and mouth disease: facing the new dilemmas, G.R. Thomson, ed. (book review). Risk Analysis 24(5):1412-1413.
  • Drake, J.M. & R.B. Bademan. 2003. Disseminating Darwinism, Numbers and Stenhouse, eds. (book review). Science and Christian Belief 15.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Femlab 2.3. (review of computer software for solving nonlinear partial differential equations). Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 84:193-195.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. The constructive use of metaphor in ecology. Science Debate responses, published online 5 September 2003. [web version]
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Chaos in ecology: experimental nonlinear dynamics by J.M. Cushing, et al. (book review) CHANCE 16(4):48-49.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. What has ecology to do with psychology? A review of Ecological psychology in context by H. Heft. Theory and Psychology 13:573-576.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Children and nature: psychological, sociocultural and evolutionary investigations, P.H. Kahn and S.R. Kellert, eds. (book review) Research News & Opportunities in Science and Theology 3(12):32.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Narrative, religion and science by S. Prickett (book review). Reviews in Religion & Theology 10:270-273.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. Science and religion in the English-speaking world, 1600-1727 by R. Brooks and D. Himrod (book review). Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith 55(1):56.
  • Drake, J.M. 2003. The Darwin wars by Andrew Brown (book review). Science and Christian Belief 15:65-66.
  • Bademan, R.B. & J.M. Drake. 2003. Reconciling science and religion: The debate in early-twentieth-century by P. Bowler (book review). Reviews in Religion & Theology.
  • Drake, J.M. 2002. Elements of mathematical ecology by M. Kot (book review). Acta Biotheoretica 50:205-207.