UPDATE: This paper has now been published by PLOS Biology, including new projections going into Summer 2015. Click here for the full text. A preprint of our…
In recent years, mathematical models and computer simulations have become an integral part of planning and coordinating public health response to outbreaks of infectious disease….
Several groups from the NIH MIDAS Network have been cooperating for the past few months on research supporting the response to the 2014 West Africa epidemic of…
While avian influenza viruses are notoriously diverse, human adapted influenza is quite similar from place to place, evolving only relatively slowly and with strain replacement…
The methodology of ecological niche modeling has long been a topic of interest in the lab. A particular challenge has been the development of methods that…
Malaria is prominent among the vector-borne infectious diseases widely anticipated to be affected by climate change. Roughly, the idea is that global and regional climate…
Early warning signals for critical transitions have now been described from a number of ecological and geophysical systems. Most of these signals reflect a dynamical…