The statistics of epidemic transitions

The statistics of epidemic transitions

The prevalence of a pathogen emerging in a population varies in a complex manner that is difficult to model and predict, due in part to…

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Assorted diatoms as seen through a microscope.

Eigenvalues as early warning signals

Ecological systems sometimes change abruptly to a much different states. For example, a clear lake may rapidly become turbid and green due to the growth…

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Waiting time to infectious disease emergence

Waiting time to infectious disease emergence

Bifurcation delay is a phenomenon that occurs when dynamical systems go through a critical transition. Bifurcation delay occurs because the state of the system may…

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Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse

Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse

Early warning signals of critical transitions arise due to critical slowing down as a dynamical system approaches a tipping point. Extinction of a biological population…

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